Will the 2026 election change business power prices? What's locked in

Not the parts rising fastest, and not soon. As at 6 November 2026, the day before New Zealand votes, the charges that have pushed business power bills up since April 2025 sit on fixed regulatory clocks: lines revenue to 31 March 2030, Transpower's for five years from 1 April 2025, gas pipeline charges to 30 September 2031. The Electricity Authority's hedge-market and billing rules are made and dated. More dated pieces are in our market updates.

What is already fixed, whatever the result?

Why can't a new government simply change lines charges?

Because the government does not set them. The Commerce Commission's revenue limits and quality standards for the regulated lines companies "are effective from 1 April 2025 until 31 March 2030". Inside that period the path moves only through the Commission's own amendment decisions: the lines companies' consolidated determination is dated 26 August 2026, and Transpower's path was last amended on 3 November 2026. The next full reset, DPP5, "will apply from 1 April 2030"; the Commission's open letter on it is dated 25 August 2025.

The money was settled on 20 November 2024: $11.5 billion of maximum allowable revenue for the local lines companies over the five years, "an increase of 47% in real terms compared to the previous five years", and $5.9 billion for Transpower, up 44%. The Commission's own explainer says distribution and transmission costs together "make up just over 30% of the average power bill" and "are likely to keep rising until at least 2030". The Authority's price data for 1 November 2025 to 30 June 2026 puts lines charges at 54% of this year's increase and expects them "to continue rising, although at a slower pace, through to 2030" (Electricity Authority, 12 August 2026). How a network's charges reach a commercial tariff is in lines charges explained; the full set of 2026 drivers is in why business power bills are rising.

One piece of the 2030 reset is decided too: on 23 September 2026 the Commission adopted a five-year trailing average for the risk-free rate in regulated networks' financing costs, which "will reduce the influence of short-term interest rate changes on regulatory settings", from 2030 for electricity lines and 2031 for gas pipelines, with all decisions expected in the third quarter of 2027.

What about gas pipeline charges?

Also set, and more recently. On 27 May 2026 the Commission published its final decision on the fourth gas default price-quality path, which "applies to gas pipeline services from 1 October 2026 to 30 September 2031" and covers First Gas transmission and the GasNet, Powerco, Vector and First Gas distribution networks. It expects most households to see "moderate increases of around 1 to 3 percent from 1 October 2026 (excluding inflation)", and notes that pipeline charges "make up about one-third of a typical residential user's gas bill". Business price categories per network are in business gas pipeline charges from 1 October 2026.

Which Electricity Authority rules are already in force?

The Electricity Authority is an independent Crown entity under the Electricity Industry Act 2010. Section 15 of the Act gives it a main objective, "to promote competition in, reliable supply by, and the efficient operation of, the electricity industry for the long-term benefit of consumers", and an additional one to protect the interests of domestic and small business consumers. The Government's lever is a Government Policy Statement under section 17 of the Act; the Authority welcomed the one released on 11 October 2024 as "aligned to, and consistent with" its work programme. Rules already in the Code stay in force until the Authority amends them:

• Hedge-market non-discrimination, made 15 May 2026, in force since 1 July 2026. The four large generator-retailers "must not discriminate between buyers or between its own internal business units and buyers" when supplying or pricing risk management contracts, and must submit six-monthly retail price consistency assessments; the first were due on 3 September (Electricity Authority, 26 May 2026). The Authority says they "should not be used as a reason to increase prices".
• Peak export rebates, from 1 April 2026. Distributors must pay small businesses with a connection up to 45kVA that export up to 45kW at peak times (Electricity Authority, 22 December 2025).
• Billing rules, made 23 February 2026. Clearer bills, product information standards, and a rule that a retailer "must not charge a domestic consumer or a small business consumer" for undercharged amounts "more than 6 months before the date of the invoice" unless an exception applies (clause 11.32H). An amendment made on 18 August 2026 deferred commencement "to provide additional time for retailers to make the necessary systems changes"; the Code now shows 1 April 2027, and the Authority's 13 August notice says the reforms start being introduced from 30 October 2026, encourages early compliance and will publish which companies do it. A second amendment, made 28 September 2026, sets a $50 (GST inclusive) or 25%-of-average-invoice threshold before the extra support steps for a back bill apply, from 1 April 2027.

What is not locked in?

• The LNG import terminal. RNZ reported on 23 September 2026 that the decision on whether the Government underwrites a new LNG import terminal was put off until after the election. It is the next Government's call, and it does not alter the regulated pipeline charges above.
• Anything that needs a law change. The Commission and the Authority work under Acts of Parliament, and what those Acts say is Parliament's to change. A Government Policy Statement under section 17 steers the Authority's work programme; it is not a price path.
• The energy part of your bill. The wholesale market follows water, gas and demand, and no election sets it. The world-price side of that story is in global energy and NZ business power prices.
• The next resets. DPP5 applies from 1 April 2030 and the next gas path from 1 October 2031, set under whatever law applies then.

What should a business do before and after 7 November?

• Separate the energy rate from the rest. Lines and transmission are priced to 2030 and gas pipelines to 2031, whoever supplies you, so compare offers on the energy rate, daily charge and term, and check your lines price category separately.
• Find your contract end date and notice period. The election does not touch a fixed-term contract; its review date does. Work through the contract renewal checklist before the renewal letter arrives.
• Watch your bills. The six-month back-bill cap is required from 1 April 2027, but the Authority expects many retailers to meet the original 30 October 2026 date, so query any back bill older than six months now.
• Get the numbers checked. Our savings calculator starts from an address or ICP and shows where your current rate sits, and the business electricity page explains how we compare it.